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As we finish out 2022, retailers and consumer brands are bracing for strong, macro-level headwinds, including inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain. Retailers are wondering where the unturned stones of profitability may lie. In 2023, we see retailers and brands taking advantage of new opportunities for incremental revenue, transforming their business models to capture additional market share, and implementing cost-saving innovations for operational survival.

Those that find success in these areas will have analyzed where the biggest risks and rewards are. They will also have executed strategies that translate to healthier results. The elite among those will leverage technology that enables their company to quickly reconfigure business structures and capabilities to meet future customer and employee needs with adaptivity, creativity, and resilience. We call this future fit, and our data show that future-fit companies outperform their peers by 2.8 times.

What trends will differentiate future-fit retailers and brands in 2023?

Digital businesses will shed the shackles of pandemic era survival at all costs. In 2023, we predict that they will refocus on the cost — and value — of their commerce operations.

To survive over the past few years, retailers invested heavily in tech to support quick pivots to store fulfillment and to squeeze conversion and higher order value out of their suddenly all-digital orders. They found their legacy commerce tech often hindered their agility in response to new market demands.

In the face of an uncertain 2023, retailers are changing tack again, ratcheting back high-cost purchase incentives like generous guarantees and free returns or delivery. The shift to managing rising costs amid operational and supply chain challenges will bring renewed focus to commerce operations and the tech that enables it.

What will 2023 bring? Here’s a peek at some of Forrester’s 2023 predictions for commerce:

1. Businesses will slash promises

Entering its 14th year, how will we see Double 11 (aka Singles’ Day), the world’s largest online shopping festival, evolve? We expect to see a few key changes.

From Intense Promotion To Focusing On Content

For the first time, Alibaba’s Tmall shortened the promotion period by slightly delaying the presales start date to October 24 from 2021’s October 20, followed by two sales periods: October 31 to November 3, and November 10–11. On the other hand, JD.com introduced a new sales period, which they termed “Zhong Cao” (planting of grass) ahead of their regular presales period. Zhong Cao describes the effect of online content (such as the recommendations from influencers) that causes consumers to have the urge to buy a product, like planting a seed in their mind. Livestreaming sessions from brands and influencers are typical Zhong Cao content.

This year, both Tmall and JD.com have simplified their Double 11

No matter how volatile and uncertain the world can be, every holiday season brings us joy. In 2020, when stores were shuttered and society was dislocated, consumers showed remarkable resilience by spending on gifts that warmed the hearts of loved ones near and far. In 2021, despite supply chain crises, stubbornly high inflation, and the very transmissible Omicron variant, holiday retail sales had their largest annual increase in 17 years. This year, consumer sentiment in the US is at an all-time low, and uncertainty about inflation is at its highest point in 30 years. Nevertheless, history guides us to believe that shoppers will find reasons to celebrate this holiday season as they have for millennia.

To generate and harvest demand while expanding sell-through this holiday season, many marketers are turning to retail media. As they do, here are three things that they should bear in mind:

1. Budget flexibly